Sound more like cables & linkage than your lower unit. Disconnect the cables and shift it by hand, that will eliminate half of the potential issues. If it won't shift (while running) then it may be the lower or the shaft but before I bought anything my next step (as other have suggested) is to simply drop the foot & check if it shift ok then, it's the only way to be positive it's in the gearbox.
Simple things first though, since it does shift, and the throttle is also part of the shifter I'd look there first.
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Doug
87 Cuddy with a 94 Black Max 200!
& a 1983 Cuddy, looking for power.
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